Hello,
Here is my technical review of the pairs for the coming week. On these reviews, I’m not going to use price action, except for some candlestick formations and horizontal trend lines, but five indicators that hopefully will reveal the underlying price bias. These indicators are:
Bollinger Bands: 1SD and 3SD Bollinger bands.
Stochastics: 10,3,3
MACD 12,26
Woodies CCI 6, 14
The intent here is not the creation of trade signals but to define a framework where posterior evidence may confirm this state and help to create more reliable signals.
If you want to watch closely any of these charts please click on the square with arrows on the top-right of every chart.
EURUSD
Daily Chart
Price Action: We see a Morning star formation
Stochastics: Not at the oversold level but turning up
MACD: Creating a divergence with price, and is moving to positive territory
Woodies CCI, It’s in the mid-line, green and turning up.
The chart is Moderately BULLISH, the resistance level will be the +1 Bollinger band, close to 1.1200
240-minute chart
Price Action: Th last three candles show large wicks to the upside, which is the action of the bears. The last candle is an inside bar.
Stochastics: Although not totally overbought, they are close to.
MACD: In a bullish phase
Woodies CCI: Close to the -200 level and in the positive band for the last four bars
The chart is a bit overbought. The pullback can be a good place to add or enter a new position. This is reinforced by the strong support line at 1.11300. We can see that the price has bounced from there on several occasions, and the last attempt to cross it has failed, although it was challenged 14 times.
GBPUSD
Daily Chart
Price Action: The last candle is a hammer beside another small body. The support at 1.2580 held the price from further falls.
Bollinger Bands: BBs show an expansion in volatility. The price is moving below the -1BB, as it happens on bearish trends.
Stochastics: Oversold, although not showing any reversal sign.
MACD: in a bearish phase
Woodies CCI: InBearish territory but divergent. ALso CCI level has crossed over the yellow trendline.
The pair is in a Clear Bearish Trend That said, there are signs of an imminent pullback.
240-minute chart
Price Action: A large bullish candle is almost engulfing the previous bearish candle, bouncing off of the 1.2580 support, and closing above the previous six small bodies.
Bollinger Bands. BBs seems shrinking. The price is right now touching the central line.
Stochastics: Moving up but not overbought.
MACD: Moving to bullish
Woodies CCI: Below the +100 mark, and moving to bullish.
All the signals point to a short-term retracement. My guess is the pair will try to move at least to 1.275, but the overall bearish trend makes a bullish trade a bit risky. The sensible thing is to wait for the pair to form a ceiling and sell short.
USDJPY
Daily chart
Price Action: USDJPY has made a large daily bearish candle with no shadows creating a convincing breakout from its previous support at 109.
Bollinger Bands: Expanding. The price went from the mid-line to touch the -3SD band in one go.
Stochastics: turning down again and close to oversold.
MACD: expanding to the bearish side after a failed attempt to move bullishly. It is a strong sign of the continuation of the trend.
Woodies CCI: Close to -300, which is an oversold condition.
Everything suggests a descending trend for the pair, but, overall the price is overextended. No surprise if next Monday there is a bounce up.
240-minute chart
Price action: Impulsive action in the last six candles
Bollinger Bands: Expanding. The price is travelling close to the -3BB signalling strength
Stochastics: Oversold
MACD: Bearish
Woodies CCI: Bearish.
This chart doesn’t show anything not present in the daily chart.
Overall a pullback to the mid-Bollinger line can be expected.
BTCUSD
Daily chart
Price Action: After three bearish candles BTC showed a Harami on Friday. From there it has recovered and now is close to the 8,800 level.
Bollinger Bands: After briefly touching the mid-line the price is moving above the +1 line. All lines are pointing upwards. The period of contraction seemed to have ended and we can see a potential expansion point again.
Stochastics: Lines crossing over to a new bullish phase
MACD: Bearish but not convincingly expanding the distance between the MACD line and the Signal line.
Woodies CCI: below +100 and turning up
The evidence is for the trend to continue and the BTC moving to new highs.
240-minute Chart
Price action: THe price continue making small breakouts and pushing up.
Bollinger Bands. The Bands move horizontally. After the initial expanse in volatility, there was no further expansion. Now the price has moved above the +1 line again and it can be seen a slight expansion in the upper +3 line.
Stochastics: Overbought
MACD: Initiating a bullish phase
Woodies CCI: above +100 and bullish. Moving with a convincing pace but not clearly over-extended.
The price is approaching the strong top from which it was strongly rejected last week (9,090). In view of this, a short-term bullish entry is a bit risky. A mid to long term bullish entry can be taken since all indications point to higher prices in the future.
