Dollar Index stayed firm above the 99.00 level on Thursday, closing up 0.1% on the day to 99.17.
The euro slipped 0.2% to $1.0922. Later today, the European Commission will release the September Consumer Confidence Index (vs. steady at -6.5 expected).
The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2328. European Parliament’s Brexit Coordinator Guy Verhofstadt said they are “in favor of an extension” of Brexit deadline.
Economic Events to Watch Today
Let’s took at these fundamentals
EUR/USD – Daily Analysis
During the early Asian session, the EUR/USD currency pair hit the low of 2-years 1.0905, but the maintains to hold 1.0900 and greenback buyers are looking satisfied during the European session. However, the risk continues to the downside due to the critical U.S. macro data.
The spot moved into new supply area during early Aisa amid low consolidative tone overnight. The EUR/USD pair hit the bearish levels since May 2017 as the Greenback hit the high level of three-months against its competitors. The buying trend increased in the U.S. Dollar over increased safe-haven demand. The Euro has drawn initially back through the trading session on Thursday but has jumped a little as the U.S. session begun.
Lately, the Euro gained a bit of support after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.9% in September 2019, after +1.0% in the prior month.
Daily Support and Resistance
S3 1.0814
S2 1.0872
S1 1.0895
Pivot Point 1.0931
R1 1.0954
R2 1.099
R3 1.1049
EUR/USD – Trading Tips
The EUR/USD symmetric triangle pattern has already been violated, and the previous support level is now working as resistance at 1.1000 area.
To the lower side, if the EUR/USD breaks down below the 1.09 EUR level, the traders are likely to continue to seek to crush down towards the 100% Fibonacci retracement level which stays near to the 1.0450 EUR level. The immediate support stays1.0990 and 1.085 today and we should consider staying bearish below 1.0940 area.
USD/JPY – Daily Analysis
USD/JPY was flat at 107.75. The Bank of Japan’s Governor, Kuroda gave signals toward further easing of Monetary Policy under appropriate guidance. He also left a few hints about the next moves of Bank of Japan against the heightening risks from the global economy.
Kuroda stated that prevailing uncertain factors include US-China Trade War, the Middle East, and Brexit along with emerging market development. He also gave Bullish comments on Japanese economy that it will likely to stay in expansionary trend due to robust domestic demand ahead.
On Wednesday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and President Trump signed a limited Trade deal. According to the agreement, the tariffs on U.S. farm goods & Japanese machine tools were cut.
The economic release from the U.S. side was of a negative effect as most versions came as expected. On 17;30 GMT the U.S. Final GDP, arrived as expected 2.0% along with GDP Price index as 2.4%.
The U.S. Goods Trade Balance -72.8B came higher than expected -73.3B. U.S. Unemployment Claims 213K also came slightly more than expected 210K. The only data which was not in favor of USD was the prelim Wholesale Inventories which came as 0.4% as compared to 0.1%.
The U.S. Dollar index dropped at the beginning of the trading day but rebound in later hours and climbed to a high of 99.15. The USD/JPY pair showed smooth movement overall with a slight Bullish trend on Thursday.
On Friday, Tokyo Consumer Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index from the U.S. will set a movement trend for USD/JPY.
Daily Support and Resistance
S3 106.67
S2 107.2
S1 107.52
Pivot Point 107.74
R1 108.06
R2 108.28
R3 108.81
USD/JPY – Trading Tips
The USD/JPY violated the bearish channel, and it’s still trading outside of this bearish channel t 107.850. It’s extending strong buying vibes in the USD/JPY. Both of the 20 and 50 moving averages are reflecting bullish signal in the USD/JPY. Bulls await confirmation of near-term ascending drive for additional strength in the USD/JPY as the pair trades around 107.85 during early Friday.
Today, let’s consider staying bullish above 107.750 to target 108 and 108.350.
AUD/USD – Daily Analysis
The AUD/USD currency pair hit the low of 3-weeks as the risk sentiment ignored the new story of the United States and China. As of writing the AUD/USD currency pair takes rounds to 0.6750 during early Asia.
Markets give a light response to the CNBC story, saying that the United States and China trade discussions will continue on 10/11 October. It should be minded, the doubts surrounding the United States President Donald Trump’s about dominating the elections, geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran are weighing the risk-tone.
On the other hand, the deficiency of economic figures and events could weigh on the AUD/USD currency pair ahead of the upcoming meeting related monetary policy by the Federal Reserve bank of Australia.
Daily Support and Resistance
S3 0.6688
S2 0.6723
S1 0.6736
Pivot Point 0.6759
R1 0.6772
R2 0.6794
R3 0.6829
AUD/USD – Trading Tips
The Australian central bank is expected to deliver a 0.25% rate cut on October 01. However, the United States Durable goods Orders, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and Personal Consumption data might entertain short-term investors during the following part of the day.
The AUD/USD is trading at 0.6759, maintaining a narrow trading range of 0.6805 – 0.6760 range on Friday. There has been a bullish crossover on the 50 periods exponential moving average which was extending resistance at 0.6755.
The MACD is tossing in a green and red zone, suggesting neutral bias among traders. Therefore, let’s keep an eye on 0.6759 to stay bullish and bearish below this level.
All the best for trading.
