Home Daily Analysis Forex Market Overview Daily FX Brief, Jun 13 – Three Trade Setups In EUR/USD, AUD/USD...

Daily FX Brief, Jun 13 – Three Trade Setups In EUR/USD, AUD/USD & USD/CHF


A day before on Wednesday, the U.S. dollar was modestly higher as trade tensions, and U.S. interest rate policy remained in highlights. However, the sell-off triggered sharply after that U.S. consumer prices barely rose in May. The Buck came under pressure as moderate inflation and
softening economic figures combines to bets that the Federal Reserve is
closer to cutting interest rates.

U.S. stocks took a breather following a strong rebound in previous sessions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eased 14 points to 26048, the S&P 500 dipped 1 point to 2885, and the Nasdaq Composite was broadly flat at 7822. What’s next? Well looking at the economic calendar, the monetary policy decision from the Swiss National Bank remains in the highlights.

Economic Event’s Outlook



AUD/USD Slips Amid Mixed Employment Report

Australia’s unemployment percentage remained abandoned at 5.2% last month, despite the adding of 42,300 jobs in May.

The rise in employment failed to lessen the unemployment rate because a record 66% of adults were either in posts or seeing for work last month.

AUD/USD – Technical Outlook

Looking at the daily chart, we can see the demand for Aussie has been hit as the AUD/USD pair slipped below 50% retracement level of 0.7030. At the same time, the 20, 25 and 50 periods EMA (exponential moving averages) are also keeping the pair lower.

The bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart also suggests a strong bearish intention of investors. The immediate support prevails at 0.6900. However, the violation of this level could open further selling trend until 0.6860.


Support and Resistance
R3: 0.7177
R2: 0.708
R1: 0.7041
Key Trading Level: 0.6983
S1: 0.6944
S2: 0.6886
S3: 0.6789

USD/CHF – Sideways Ahead of SNB Policy Decision

The Switzerland economy expanded by a faster-than-expected rate of 0.6% in the first three months of 2019, serving from easing trade pressures and a weaker currency. However, on the inflation aspect, price pressures are well below 1%, as the CPI rate dropped to 0.6% in May.

Looking ahead the June conference, SNB policymakers will be strictly monitoring how both national and overseas growth emerge in the coming months. It seems like; the traders are currently pricing around a 50% odds that the SNB will cut its policy rate by 25 base points by March 2020 from the current record low of -0.75%. Those odds could rise if the SNB is overly dovish on Thursday.

USD/CHF – Technical Outlook

On the technical side, the USD/CHF pair stays below a stable resistance area of 1.0077 and a support area of 0.9890. As you can see, the pair is gaining support over double bottom pattern, which may keep USD/CHF supported until the policy decision. Berish breakout could trigger sell-off until 0.9835 and 0.9750.


Support and Resistance

R3: 1.0253
R2: 1.0086
R1: 0.9982
Key Trading Level: 0.9918
S1: 0.9814
S2: 0.975
S3: 0.9583

EUR/USD – Peaking Out of Tight Range

Signal currency euro remains weaker against the dollar, despite more inadequate CPI data from the United States. Earlier today, the German consumer prices were up 1.4% in May 2019 versus the May 2018 figure. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that the inflation rate – as measured by the consumer price index – decreased. In April 2019, it had been +2.0%. However, the figure has failed to support the Euro.

EUR/USD – Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD made bullish breakout attempt but was once again rejected from the top of its recent range 1.1343. The pair still stays above 20, 25 and 50 periods EMA in daily charts, but slipped below the 1.13 mark.

The technical outlook has turned negative in the short-term timeframe, with the Momentum and the RSI indicators both pointing south below their midlines, with the price below the 23.6% Fibo retracement of the 1.1107/1.1347 rally.

The drop could easily continue to next Fibo level at 1.1255. Nonetheless, in the daily charts, indicators are retracing from overbought conditions.

Support and Resistance
R3: 1.1664
R2: 1.1471
R1: 1.1402
Key Trading Level: 1.1279
S1: 1.1209
S2: 1.1086
S3: 1.0893


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