Home Daily Analysis Forex Market Overview Daily FX Brief, July 08 – Post-NFP Trade Setups – Who’s Up...

Daily FX Brief, July 08 – Post-NFP Trade Setups – Who’s Up for It?


On Monday, the economic event remains light and investors seems to price in NFP and Unemployment rate data from the United States. Specifically, it was a solid Nonfarm Payrolls report and the headline payroll surprise benefited the Dollar. The 10-year yield rallied to close +4.66% higher and stocks ended lower. The DXY rallied 0.47%, rallying in the 96.72/97.44 range. In the data, the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% just 0.1% above May’s five-decade record and the labour force participation rate climbed to 62.9%, according to the Labor Department on Friday. What’s next?

Economic Events to Watch Today

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair recovers to 1.2530 over the different political clues from the United Kingdom. Today in the early market, the opposition party’s Tory members are moving forward to challenge the Prime Minister of UK candidate Boris Johnson’s deadline. Moreover, due to repeated expectations around the soft Brexit, that supported the GBP/USD pair to gain the 1.2530.

Meanwhile, the former Brexit Minister Dominic Raab warned of suspending Parliament of the UK if they support the odds for a no deal exit from the European Union.

On the flip side, during the new uncertainties about the US-China trade truce and the U.S. president Donald Trumps comments started the USD’s pullback to 1,2530 on the early day, The GBP/USD pair got support due to the expectation of a soft Brexit to stop declining more ahead of the London open on Monday.

Daily Support and Resistance
S3 1.2319
S2 1.2426
S1 1.2477
Pivot Point 1.2533
R1 1.2584
R2 1.2639
R3 1.2746

Consider staying bullish above 1.2515 to target 1.2565 and 1.2580 today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair surged from 107.80 to 108.40, with highs above 108.60 over Non-Farm Payroll. Earlier today, the USD/JPY pair mounted from 107.80 to 1.8.40, and increase further 1.08.60 due to the Nonfarm payroll that surprised the market. As a result, extended support to the U.S. Dollar and the U.S. yields.

Moreover, the ten-year bond yields rallied to close higher +4.66% and stocks ended lower amid no rate cut expectations. Upon the release of NFP, the dollar index chart surged by 0.47%, rallying in the 96.72/97.44 range.

Yet, the bullish trend in the U.S. dollar remains in check over a small disappointment about the lack of pick up in annual average hourly wages. Wages growth rate stuck at 3.2%y/y, but according to the whole situation the report was marked as strong enough to put question market on the interest rate cut.

Daily Support and Resistance
S3 106.7
S2 107.51
S1 107.99
Pivot Point 108.31
R1 108.79
R2 109.12
R3 109.92

I’m going to keep an eye on 108.600 as the market can stay bullish over and bearish below this level. On the lower side, support can be found at 108.050 along with resistance at 108.600. I’m not expecting any breakouts in the wake of thing liquidity in the market.

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair still targets the 1.1330/48 band. The EUR/USD pair is trading back under the fifty-five-day moving average at 1.1232 and surrounding nears the March and mid-June lows at 1.1181/76.

During the Asian market, the U.S. dollar edged higher due to unexpected jobs reports that depressed the expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut rate aggressively to fight a slow-growing economy. The Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 224,000 in June, and well increased unexpectedly for 160,000. The U.S. Dollar Index current traded at 96.792 down 0.1%.

Daily Support and Resistance
S3 1.1088
S2 1.1163
S1 1.1195
Pivot Point 1.1239
R1 1.127
R2 1.1314
R3 1.1389

From a technical viewpoint, the 1.1200 handle corresponds with 23.6% Fibo levels of the 1.1570-1.1107. Sustained weakness below the mentioned support will reinforce the recent bearish bias and turn the pair vulnerable to accelerate the slide further towards the 1.1130-25 intermediate support en route yearly lows – closer to the 1.1100 round figure mark.

Thus, consider keeping an eye on 1.12000 to stay bearish or bullish above with level with a 50 pips take profit on both sides. All the best!


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