Home Daily Analysis Forex Market Overview Daily FX Brief, July 04 – U.S. Independence Day, Key Trade Setups!

Daily FX Brief, July 04 – U.S. Independence Day, Key Trade Setups!


The U.S. dollar continues to trade steadily on Thursday, amid the celebration of the Independence Day holiday. On Wednesday, the dollar index closed flat at 96.71. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that he craves a weaker dollar, tweeting: “China and Europe playing big currency manipulation game and pumping money into their system to compete with the USA. We should MATCH, or continue living the dummies who lie back and gently watch as other countries proceed to play their games – as they have for many years!”

Economic Events to Watch Today


EUR/USD – Daily Outlook

The EUR/USD pair continues to be below 1.13 in spite of fresh 32-month lows in the U.S. bonds markets. The EUR/USD pair continuously traded under 1.13. Failure to cross above 1.1300 is a cause for uncertainty among EUR buyers, as the pair continues to face resistance over the last two days. On the daily time-frame, the EUR/USD has reached a high of 1.1322 and 1.1312 for the previous two days, yet managed to close under the 1.1300 resistance level.

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair was trading at 1.1282, holding a high and low of 1.1295 and 1.1277, respectively. The euro may come under pressure in Europe if the European Central Bank’s new chief economist, Philip Lane Banks, continues to talk of an interest rate cut.

The EUR/USD is trading slightly bearish today at 1.1275, losing around -0.16% on the day. A day before, the EUR/USD pair tried to violate the double bottom support, but with no success. A bearish breakout of the 1.1275 level could bring a sell-off in EUR/USD until it reaches 1.1245.

Daily Support and Resistance
S3 1.12
S2 1.1243
S1 1.1262
Pivot Point 1.1287
R1 1.1305
R2 1.133
R3 1.1374

GBP/USD – Daily Outlook

The GBP/USD pair is trading near 1.2580 as U.K. politics remains in the spotlight due to lack of significant economic data. U.S. banks will remain closed in the observance of Independence Day. The GBP/USD pair reached around 1.2580 while going into the London session. However, volatility remains pretty thin today.

From the political perspective, the United Kingdom Prime Minister candidates, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, continue their campaigns. Most of the major currencies have been exhibiting bullish power against the U.S. Dollar, which ultimately extends support to the GBP as well.

Daily Support and Resistance
S3 1.2505
S2 1.254
S1 1.2557
Pivot Point 1.2575
R1 1.2592
R2 1.261
R3 1.2645

The GBP/USD pair is technically bearish as per the 4-hour chart. The pair is currently heading below all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA stimulating its drop below the broader moving averages presently at 1.2635.

The Momentum indicator has jumped from it’s daily low, moving higher but still well beneath its mid-line, whereas the RSI indicator floats near 30. The 20, 25, and 50 period EMAs are also suggesting bearish bias. Consider staying bearish below 1.2620 today as the GBP/USD has the potential to go after 1.2520. Good luck!


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