Litecoin reached the highest valuation of 2019 on June 22. That was $146.95, and it meant 551.95% growth in its value since its December 7, 2018 low ($22,54). Now, one day before the reward halving the price has retraced close to 50% of that price increment, and it seems dominated by the selling pressure.
Since its last top, LTCUSD started a corrective movement that made it lose up to 57.4% of that upward movement on June 16. From there it began a sideways movement inside a triangular structure making lower highs and higher lows. The last four days the price has been correcting the bullish candle made on June 31. This is driving the price to a support region.
The current action, I think, is dominated by the halving event uncertainty, which is creating further selling pressure, but the price is still inside the triangular structure and it did not break the last bullish candle’s low ($90.00).
The previous Halving
The image below shows what happened after its 2015 halving.
If you click on the image to enlarge it you’ll see that the price continue falling, but just -12.59% from the halving day close. Sellers had to see it jump up above the previous halving level in a bullish movement that had its peak in November with more than a 100% valuation from its lows.
Chart history is a record of the psychology and beliefs of traders. People look at the charts and make observations about what happened in 2015. It is just ONE data sample but the imagination of the people make it statistically significant. Therefore, fear of losing the gains of the recent run-up prevail over rational thinking and analysis.
The rational way to deal with trading decisions is having a plan and stick to it. Currently, the price action is in a support region, and the last low of bullish candlestick made on June 31 has not been breached. Thus, an invalidation level of this bullish candlestick has not been reached. Maybe the price finally will move lower, but that is the nature of this business. If we went long because we believed in June’s 31 bullish advancement it is yet not the time to sell.