NZDUSD has been descending for a long time. After a large capitulation candlestick, the pair began a retracement, but it didn’t hold. Then it backtracked this retracement completely touching the last bottom and initiating a sideways channel.
Looking at the 4H chart, NZDUSD is forming lower highs. Now is in a brink of breaking its 0.6366 support. By the price action, we can infer there is almost no buying force to drive its price to the top of the channel since the last candle is retracing all the progress of the previous 4H, and that in less than one hour.
The next obvious support level is 0.624 and the invalidation of this scenario, after a close below the 0.6366 is another close above it.
The reward to risk situation is suitable for a short trade, but maybe there are not too many sellers after that long downward trend. The best strategy is to wait for a selling capitulation and make a short-term long entry after the price start bouncing.
In case the price backtracks and start moving to the upside, 0.64 is a good entry point with a target at 0.65.